Economic Theory vs Economic Reality

Economic Theory

1. A sliding dollar is good for the economy, it will boost exports.
2. The dollar is overvalued and needs to be “right” valued.
3. Our debt to GDP Ratio is down.
4. Our Fiscal deficit is down.
5. Jamaica has passed all four IMF test
6. The economic indicators are looking very good
7. Portia is the best person to implement the IMF program
8. When we have complete 4 yr program, Jamaica will see massive economic growth.
9. IMF is pleased with the Jamaican Government
10. Job creation should  occur

 

Economic Reality

1. Exports are down 34% and the country is poorer than before.
2. The dollar is being “right” valued and prices are flying through the roof as the dollars searches for the correct value.
3. Our debt stock is rising and we are not earning enough to pay back these debts.
4. GOJ owes billions of dollars that are not on the books
5. Suppliers and workers are owed over $54B , which is putting many of these business at risk of closing.
6. The prices of goods and services continues to rise on a weekly basis, people can barely survive.
7. Worst Prime  Minister this country has ever seen, is best to lead the country down the road of  poverty.
8. There is no growth plan, we hope growth will happen at the end of the program. Business and consumer confidence continues to sink and more and more Jamaicans are seeking to get the out of what is fast becoming a hell hole.
9. The people of Jamaica are getting poorer and poorer by the day and are now scavenging to survive, there is growing anger with the GOJ and the IMF.
10. Workers are being sent home on a daily basis.

 

Jamaica has indeed doing well !

Owen Ellington to retiire

Owen Ellington last day in office is tomorrow July 1, 2014. Mr Ellington is just 51 yrs old .

UWI Economist are part of Jamaica’s problem

I have long stated that we really need a set of independent analyst in Jamaica, cut down on what I call intellectual dishonesty.

From time to time we hear Dr So and So from UWI being asked to give an assessment of the Jamaican economy, the dollar or some other economic indicator and when they are done, you ask yourself the question ” Was he/she speaking about Jamaica”.

Dr Damien King was recenly critical of the Economic Advisory Team , which was put together by Andrew Holness and headed by Aubyn Hill. It was reported that on Dr King said on Twitter ” the JLP should be embarassed for not having a economist on the advisory team”.

Hill in responding said Damien was invited but decline the invitation because ”  he wants to make himself available should the government require his services”.

I often wonder why with so many brilliant minds up at UWI and who are aligned to the various political parties,  Jamaica is not better off today.

In 1960’s and early 1970’s we had less Dr in economics , finance and management and we were so much better off.  Why therefore have we not been able to convert economic theory to economic reality ?

Courtesy : Jamaica Observer

The person directing the IMF Chief from behind is Dr King, lecturer of economics at UWI.

That stupid anti-gay rally !

So according to the estimates over 25,000 Jamaicans turned up in HWT, not to rally about rising poverty, rising crime and violence, 300 missing kids, rising food prices and massive devaluation, but instead they were there to urge the GOJ not to repeal the buggery act, what a damn waste of time !

There is so much wrong in Jamaica, but yet 25,000 people chose to go out on the street to rally against gays as if “gayism” is some kind of a diseases that you can catch.

Do Jamaicans really believe that by simply repealing the buggery act, all of a sudden the entire male population is suddenly about to become gay and over run Jamaica.

Let’s briefly explore the buggery act for a minute.

The act specifically makes it a criminal offence for someone (male) to have sex with an animal or another male.

Now, as far as I know it’s a criminal offence for anyone man, woman or transsexual to have sex in public even in a heterosexual couples, I believe this is called indecent exposure and one can be arrested and charged.

Having sex with an animal is a despicable act and I do not believe that this would go should the buggery act be repealed.

Now,  since all forms of public sex act is liable to criminal punishment, that leaves the act to be one in private and I do not believe that Jamaica is a police state where cops can enter someone’s home to determine what kinds of sexual act these people are involved in.

So, what does repeal of the buggery act in its simplest form achieve or does not achieve, since the indecent exposure act is still there and anyone who violates this is subject to criminal charges .

Now, had these people gone and demonstrated against the fact that 12 yr old, 13 yr old children are being targeted and sexually abused by adults in the Jamaican society, they would have had my full support. No one below the age of 16 is considered and adult and cannot therefore consent to having sexual relations with anyone, yet we see so many underage kids getting pregnant for big men yet the country is not outrage.

We have many men engaging is sexual exploitation of kids for pleasure in exchange for money, but the country remains silent on this matter, why

Just two years ago a man who raped, strangled and buried a 12 yr old girl was given a paltry 12 or 10 yrs in prison and while there was some murmur from the society, there were no expression of outrage, why not ?

Why the mention of  “gay” evoke such emotions from the people of Jamaica, but not murder, corruption et al.

I wished we would have used the time yesterday to send a strong message to the Prime Minister and her large cabinet, that we have had enough of the austerity talk, enough of rising food prices, falling dollar, rising poverty, rising corruption, rising unemployment, rising crime, a failing economy etc, instead  25,000 strong went to HWT to waste precious time.

The world must be looking on wondering WTF is wrong with those Jamaicans, just look at the state of the economy and look what they choose to  get all worked up about.

 

 

 

 

IMF cannot fix Jamaica’s problems !

We want to live champagne lifestyle on a beer salary and that is not sustainable .

The IMF Chief just left and she indicated she was pleased with the “progress” that Jamaica has made under the program, but what does all this means in real terms.

Well for one it means we are now in a better position to pay the IMF and the those that IMF has agreed with to lend money to Jamaica. The dollar is at an all time low but IMF is suggesting it still has a long way to go, to get Jamaicans to reduce spending hard earn forex on overseas purchase, but this will never work given our voracious appetite for foreign goods..

Jamaican manager love for expensive SUV to adorn their carparks,  while running 1960’s equipment is yet another part of our problem, which requires a mindset to change if we intend to move forward

Man beaten to near death caught on camera

I am still in a state of absolute shock at the level of barbarity that was on display on a kingston inner city street recently.
CVM TV showed a video of a man being beaten mercilessly by a mob with sticks, stones and any other objects the residents could lay their hands on.

His head was stomped on into the ground as women and children as well as males took turn hitting the man with savagery never witnessed before on camera in Jamaica.

Having beaten the man to near death, he was lifted by two males by is two hands and feet, swung and then throw in the air, before landing on the asphalt. Not satisfied with this savagery, the near lifeless body was dragged along the rd, before two tyres was placed on him and an attempt made to light the tyres.

The shout of police, saw someone hurriedly take the tyre off him before everyone ran for cover.

I am in a state of disbelief on what I witnessed as never before have I seen such a brutal attack on a human being.

The fact that kids were involved makes the situation that more disturbing and makes you wonder, what will become of these kids when they grow up.

What a bunch of savages !

Renewable energy is overrated in Jamaica and here is why

With every crises there is opportunities and people who are out there willing to sell you the next best thing their is to solve the “perceived” problem that you may think you have.

The biggest “thing” in Jamaica today, ( apart from gays) is the high cost of energy and the effect it is having on industrial, commercial and householders.

In the papers, on the televisions and on the internet, every Tom, Dick and Harry is offering the consumer a renewable energy solution, which is being said will solve your energy problem and we all need to move in this direction, but will that be the case.

I have said it before that Jamaica have a energy utilization problem, by that I mean we do not use energy efficiently , resulting in significant waste which helps to push up our energy cost on a daily, monthly and annual basis.

The last step in lowering your energy cost is installation of a renewable energy system, be that Photovoltaics or Wind Turbines, but in Jamaica, many of us start at this point.

Why am I suggesting that this is the very last step you should take as you seek to lower your energy cost, well here it is.

It has been found that consumers can reduce their energy consumption by up to 20% by doing simple things that do not require any significant capital expenditure.

Cost may not necessarily drop by 20%, given our constantly changing exchange rate and fuel prices, but it should lower your energy cost.

The first step folks must be that we take steps to understand how we are consuming or wasting energy, then next step is to make changes to conserve energy and use energy more efficiently.

Once we have done all the above and reduced our consumption,  its only at that point should we move to take on any capital investment in a renewables energy project.

Now the sales man who wants to sell you a system is not likely to tell you this, since he wants to sell you the largest system you can afford so he can make a killing, while had you spend next to nothing and and drop your energy consumption, you could have purchase a smaller system and saved significant cost.

So what I am essentially saying is do all the other stuff first and when you are done, that is the time you move to make any investment in renewables to improve your savings.

 

 

 

Growing disquiet as public service sectors workers gets no or short pay !

I have never seen a country with a people so  full of itself, that despite all that is falling down around them, it’s no problem !

We continue to express great pride in passing 4 consecutive IMF test, but again I ask  at cost to the Jamaican public.

First we heard about orderlies in parliament not being paid, now we hear that Junior doctors out west were not paid or where short paid, so the big question is what on earth is taking place in the country.

Certain suppliers to the Government are buckling under pressure and are on the verge of closing due to the fact that collectively they are owed over $57b and there are no signs as to when they will be paid.

Some have resorted to withholding further supplies from the government in order to press home the need for them to pay up.

I am not sure where this will all end up, but it’s not looking good at all.

 

 

JPS resorts to load shedding once again

I am here sitting in darkness, unable to do my routine due to the fact that JPS has decided to shed load in many areas due to a shortfall in generating capacity.

This makes it more urgent the need to improve our generating capacity and reliabilty of the power supply system, given the negative impact these power cuts have on the country.

I thought the days of power cut was behind us, but I was oh so wrong,

Here we go again !

Our most loved leaders have screwed up Jamaica, time to dump Portia and her crew !

Michael Manley was a great orator, he spoke eloquently to the people , he was loved by the masses to the point of almost being worshipped and at some points it seemed he could do no wrong.

The Michael Manley era was more of a failure than, prosperity and the experiment with democratic socialism failed miserably and set this country back many years. I am not suggesting that Manley did no good, as I have mentioned in a previous article, many institutional benefits that exist today, came as a result of his intervention.

When Manley left, PJ Patterson was able to capture the leadership of the party, he was never a Manley, he was not that well loved, but he had Portia Simpson Miller, whose appeal to the masses helped to keep that party in power for 18.5 yrs on the trot. Also due to Manley’s “love” for the poor, it was seen as the party of and for the poor.

The Patterson era was rocked by over $5.5B in scandals and $120b hole  as a result of what is now called the Finsac debacle, which affects Jamaica to this day.

Portia finally got her chance when PJ Patterson retired, but was not able to stave off a defeat by the JLP in 2007, but would return in 2011 to flog the JLP.

Portia era has taken up where PJ left off and the policies and strategies being employed by the government does not appear to be working at all.

We have been able to pass all the IMF , but at what economic and human cost ?

The Prime Minister lacks the fundamental capacity to lead, her cabinet is made up mostly of old perennial non-performers , but somehow, buy some magic or divine intervention, we expect a bunch of failures to suddenly deliver extraordinary results, read my lips ” it ain’t gonna happen”.

We cannot talk growth into the economy, we cannot fix crime by talking and creating more laws, we cannot fix education by doing reports, we cannot lower the cost of electricity simply by talking about where we think the cost ought to be.

We cannot “protect” the Prime Minister by refusing to announce that suppliers are owed $57b or public sector workers and some parliamentarians are not being paid, or refusing to show illegal connections in Majesty Gardens even as the Prime Minister boldly declares ” I do not support the illegal abstraction of electricity, while sitting below tens of illegal connections in a tent.

We cannot “protect” the Prime Minister by refusing to have her host post cabinet press briefings or speaking to the media at public functions.

I have learned in my life, that if you want to overcome a fear, you must challenge yourself, if you want to become good at something you must put in the effort, you must practise harder than that other guy.

We can can continue to live in fools paradise by believing that somehow Portia will become a good leader and take Jamaica to prosperity, because ” it ain’t gonna happen”.

This Prime Minister is arguably the worst Prime Minister this country has ever seen and the majority of the cabinet needs to be retired in the public interest.

It’s time to rid this country of this bunch of old people, who obviously are not equipped with the skills set required to operate in this  new environment.

Their time has expired and the need to leave of be chased out of political office as they cannot move the country forward. Keeping them around much longer will do nothing but corrupt the upcoming younger ones as we have seen happening to Pryce and Crawford among others

Its time for Jamaica to get rid of these folks and begin to chart anew course, they have done Jamaica enough damage, which will take no less than 20 yrs to correct.