Projected Election Results for Hanover(Jay’s Predictions)

Continuing the series of predictions

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Projected Election Results for St Thomas ( Jay’s Predictions)

The St Thomas Eastern results appears to show the 6 start general will be getting a run for his money.

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Projected Election Results for St Andrew ( Jay’s Predictions)

Continuing the series of predictions, I now turn my attention to St Andrew, this is a huge one but here goes.

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Projected Election Results for St Ann ( Jay’s Predictions)

This is the fourth in the sequence of results that I will be presenting leading up to election day. Here goes

Projected Election Results for Kingston & Port Royal ( Jay’s Predictions)

This is the third in the sequence of results that I will be presenting leading up to election day.

KINGSTON WESTERN

Kingston Central

Kingston Eastern and Port Royal

Projected Election Results for Portland ( Jay’s Predictions)

Over the next 10 days, I will be posting seat by seat projections, so here goes.

Now for Eastern Portland

So this closes out Portland.

Keeping watching for more results.

Election Predictions based on polls and demographics Part 2

The JLP can completely decimate the opposition PNP if they use the next two weeks to fine tune their election strategy and then get people out on the day.

So I have used to sensitivity analysis to determine, what would be required to get the number of seats to be in line with the noted Pollster Don Anderson last set of poll results, with no change in voter turn out on election day.

Essentially, I am trying to establish any impact, of possible voting pattern of the three groups on the overall poll results, and the numbers were quite interesting, take a look.

What if the JLP were to get people to vote along these lines, what’s the possible projections in terms of total vote count and number of seats.

This would be the final results, that is a landslide, but is that possible

Labourites, this is what would be required to generate a landslide victory.

Not impossible, but I think its improbable at this point in time.

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Election Predictions based on polls and demographics Part 1

I have taken the poll results as well as data from Statin showing the demographics of the population and completed an analysis of the likely outcome in the upcoming elections .

I have used a slider( yes, we can do that) along with the data to look at the % of voters delineated by age group in conjunction with latest results from the Don Anderson Poll as well as the other along with the July 31, 2020 Voters list to perform my analysis .

It has already been said by all pollster that the younger voters favour the JLP while the older ones tends to favour the PNP.

There is however a new voter in the Mix and that is Covid-19 and as such I have made adjustments with that in mind to arrive at the position I now have , so here goes.

First this is my projections of the likely votes coming from each age group as noted below. Of course I can use the Slider to change that to determine the sensitivity of votes and seat counts based on the % of each age group that goes out and vote come Sept 3, 2020 and who they are likely to vote for .

Next I examined the possible turn out by each age group and the impact that will likely have on actual number of votes based on the graph above and this is how the numbers are likely to play out.

I will present additional information later today or tomorrow.

This shows JLP picking up two additional seats and the PNP losing two seats

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Election 2020 Prediction coming..

This will cover the following areas

1. Seats for each party
2. Projected vote count per seat
3. Total number of Safe, Marginal and other seats going to each party
4. Projected total vote count.
5. Projected voters turn out and total number of votes.
6. % of votes for each seat for each party for each constituency
7. Number voters added for each constituency

Stay tuned for more.

Jay’s predictions coming soon..

Could be as early as this afternoon for the first post

Despite all the poll results showing positive for the JLP, Labourites must now be energized to go out and vote

The target is 45 Seats on Sept 3, 2020

The Gleaner /RJR group recently commissioned noted pollster Don Anderson to test the party standing coming up to the election (poll commissioned before the date was announced)

Don went into the field towards the end of July – August 6, 2020 and the data has been presented nightly on TVJ news and a little earlier on Beyond the Headlines with Dionne Jackson-Miller

Tonight Wednesday, Aug 19, 2020 TVJ will present the poll everyone has been waiting for, yes you guessed it , the party standing.

Let’s have a look at the findings of the poll results thus far.

Government handling of the Covid Pandemic

Performance of the party leader – Andrew Holness

Performance of the Government

I note the error in the word “positive”, which I will correct as soon as I get a chance to do so.

Now how do these numbers look when compared to Bill Johnson/Mello TV /Observer Polls

Bill Johnson/Observer Poll

Mello TV/ Bill Johnson Poll

Mello TV/Bill Johnson

These are good numbers but remember elections are won on the day