If the JLP delivers economic growth, its lights out for Peter, Portia and Paul

The JLP has focused on taking Jamaica from poverty to prosperity and based on the how they have begun, it appears that they are very serious about that pledge.

The former  Prime Minister, who appears to only know growth from the dictionary or from other sources, says she is confused by the number of folks the JLP has thrown at the growth agenda.

I am not very surprised by this bemusement by the former Prime Minister as it was clear that when she was in power, she understood very little about the growth agenda. Recall the Prime Minister in her 40 yrs as a MP and as a member of the PNP has seen very little growth and so does not really know how growth looks or is manifested and could not tell what is growth even if she sees it.

The same applies to Peter Phillips etal, they all have no idea how to create economic growth and would all fail to recognize it even if it slaps them in the face.

If the JLP delivers growth that people can feel, eg the $18,000 tax break, free education , free health that actually works, it will be curtains for the careers of Peter, Portia, Paul and many others.

Its a pity people like Julian Robinson and soon to be MP Mark Golding are likely to be part of an opposition for the next 15 years, due primarily to the fact that the JLP would have found a way to bring about prosperity on the land.

These guys are too good to languish in opposition and as such I hope they hop over to greener pastures and join the prosperity train.

Peter and Portia can continue to preach doom and gloom, but very few will be listening

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Peter Phillips and the PNP are very disingenuous

Now opposition spokesman on Finance and former Finance Minister Dr Peter Phillips, worked with technocrats at the MOF for 4 years during which time he Dr Phillips was praised for his excellent work with the management of the country’s economy.

Dr Phillips work could not have been achieved without those folks employed to the MOF, given then he (Dr Phillips) had no formal training in either economics or Finance.

It therefore has come as a shocker to me than less than 2 months after he lost his job, Dr Phillips has the “gall” to question the capabilities of the very people who taught him the job and managed the affairs on the country on his behalf.

Are we to believe that in just two months, these once brilliant people have become idiots?

Dr Peter Phillips spent almost two hrs giving a presentation that was meaningless and offered nothing in terms of an alternative path for the economy. Dr Phillps during his time imposed in Jamaicans over $52B in new taxes in just 4 years and the country did not collapse.

To help fund the budget, the PNP took $44B from the NHT over the 4 years period, because there was simply no alternative and to now hear the man speak, cleary shows who was doing the real work at the MOF.

Without the folks of the MOF to help him Dr Phillips prepared a response to the budget without substance and provide zero ideas on moving Jamaica from poverty to prosperity. In fact it would appear that he thinks the country will fail because the PNP is now in power, oh the absolute temerity of this man.

What is clear is the PNP had no new plan for this country and so the people of Jamaica must be commended for their foresight in rejecting the PNP at the last election.

It is really hard to be a public servant in this country and its not wonder the best minds would rather go away vs working in the public sector.

 

 

 

Jamaica Civil Service Association (JCSA) is not happy that PNP is not in power!

I continue to listen to the Jamaica Civil Service Association and the more I do the more I am seeing what is wrong with Jamaica.

The President of the Association has been noticeable more vocal since Feb 25, 2016 but not only has he been vocal, his statements have been found to be very troubling .

Statement 1

Pubic officers should not have to declare assets to gain promotion.

The President seems completely ambivilent to the fact that the wider society sees the Civil servants as a corrupt body and therefore welcome this move which seems geared towards a greater level of transparency.

The move to reject this move is therefore seen as an attempt to main the corrupt status quo, which is something we simply cannot afford.

Statement #2

Government should abandon the tax plan and instead raise the threshold to $1,000,000.

I swear that too many organization in this country is lead by a bunch of idiots who have very little computations skills and continues to mis lead the people they are are attempting to lead.

A quick calculation of their proposal would see most civil servants taking home between $35,000 – $108,000 less per annum.  I really wonder whose interest are these people looking out for because surely;y it cannot be the low income workers.

I think the Civil Servants needs to find a more competent leader to take charge of the group, because I think this current one lacks the capacity to lead properly.

        Pension @ 5% 25%  
Salary Current Thres Goj  Thres JCSA Thres   Current Tax Tax GT
 $    1,200,000 $692,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000  $ 60,000  $   112,000  $      –
 $    1,300,000 $692,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000  $ 65,000  $   135,750  $      –
 $    1,400,000 $692,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000  $ 70,000  $   159,500  $      –
 $    1,500,000 $692,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000  $ 75,000  $   183,250  $      –

 

  Inc after Tax but  Before Statuory Deductions    
Tax JSCA T Current Inc Inc GT Inc JSA Thres Diffe/yr Diff/Mth
 $     35,000  $     1,028,000  $     1,140,000  $  1,105,000  $    35,000  $   2,917
 $     58,750  $     1,099,250  $     1,235,000  $  1,176,250  $    58,750  $   4,896
 $     82,500  $     1,170,500  $     1,330,000  $  1,247,500  $    82,500  $   6,875
 $   106,250  $     1,241,750  $     1,425,000  $  1,318,750  $  106,250  $   8,854

Andrew Holness could be Jamaica’s greatest ever Prime Minister

I have been a fierce critic of Andrew Holness over the last few years, but I must admit the man has grown by leaps and bounds in the last 12 months.

Andrew Holness a few years back was boring and uninspiring and appeared to be a vindictive individual, but having almost been thrown out of the party he has emerged a much stronger person.

Today Andrew has morphed into a much stronger and vibrant person who ran a truly inspiring and focused election campaign. He never allowed himself to become distracted and stayed on message during entire period.

It was the mass rally in HWT that I really knew Andrew Holness had come of age and was ready to lead Jamaica to the next level.

If Andrew remains focused and rooted in his beliefs and communicate to the people of Jamaica and listen to their voices, there is no stopping him from becoming the greatest Prime Minister since independence.

He cannot do it on his own and their needs to leverage those in both the public, private sector his own cabinet and even the opposition to take the country from a crime filled dirty and corrupt place, to the financial, manufacturing and commercial giant of the Caribbean.

He must however recognize along the journey that not all Jamaicans will want to walk with him as we try to lift this country. There are those in this country who are of the belief that the cannot live in the country unless the PNP is government and will not lend support to any leader trying to build this country as long as they are not from their side. This is the reality of today’s Jamaica, but I do hope that as we mature, we will all come to the realization that if Jamaica wins, we all win and we really need to start winning.

We have been running from this country for years seeking refuge in smaller and yet more developed economies paying much better than we can ever hope to earn in Jamaica and I believe its time to change the game.

We are too rich to be poor and need to begin to move beginning today, March 3, 2016 on that journey

For those who don’t believe they can live under a JLP administration, I say get over it. I don’t see Americans running from America when the Democrat or Republican wins, what I see is that whoever is in power makes Americans believe they are the greatest nation on the earth and act like that.

We may not love the America way, but this is one sure thing I like about them. If sports can unite us, why have politics divide us.

 

 

JLP’s income tax proposal will give Public Sector workers a big boost

The proposal to remove income tax from those earning less than $1.5m per annum is music to the ear of many public sector workers, but bad news for politicians who earns above $5m per annum.

The main reason for the opposition by the PNP is not that the system cannot work,instead it means they will now have to pay income tax on their full income, which means less money in their pockets. Recall the PNP in opposition refused to signed the agreement for 10% salary cut.

Based on my calculation public sector workers will see a net salary increase above the 7% the PNP gave them over a two year period and so they will have a much better pay day going forward.

At the lower scale workers will see about a 7.12% increase in salaries and up to 17.10% on the upper end.

Given this massive increase, the Government has no need to increase public sector wages at the end of this contract period, given the size of this increase.

This could save the Government in the order of  $6.6bb dollars in salaries and wages from 2018  onwards until the next wage increase would be due in 2020

 

See table below

.

5% 25% % Increase
Basic Salary $850,000 $850,000
NIS $42,500 $42,500
Threshold $592,800  $    1,500,000
Tax $53,675 0
After Tax Inc $753,825 $807,500 7.12%
Basic Salary  $    1,000,000  $    1,000,000
NIS  $          50,000  $          50,000
Threshold $592,800  $    1,500,000
Tax $89,300 0
After Tax Inc $860,700 $950,000 10.38%
Basic Salary  $    1,200,000  $    1,200,000
NIS  $          60,000  $          60,000
Threshold $592,800  $                     –
Tax $136,800 0
After Tax Inc $1,003,200 $1,140,000 13.64%
Basic Salary  $    1,400,000  $    1,400,000
NIS  $          70,000  $          70,000
Threshold $592,800  $                     –
Tax $184,300 0
After Tax Inc $1,145,700 $1,330,000 16.09%
Basic Salary  $    1,500,000  $    1,500,000
NIS  $          75,000  $          75,000
Threshold $592,800  $                     –
Tax $208,050 0
After Tax Inc $1,216,950 $1,425,000 17.10%

Public sector workers should vote for an increase in pay come payday after being suffering for 5 years of a wage freeze and the insult of 4% pay increase.

The JLP proposal will give you a 7.12% increase in the very first year, making your lives much better, but guess what your unions are not in agreement, how ironic.

Bless

PNP’s job creation target is nothing but a con

Jamaica is a country where too few people spends the time to do research and come to their own position on issues in the country.

The PNP in its recently released Manifesto has promised 100,000 jobs in five years and has laid out something of a plan on how to get it, but lets examine that as well as the PNP track record on job creation.

On page 16 of the Manifesto, the PNP says,

14,000 new rooms will be created over the next decade ( 10 years), which will create 40,000 news jobs.

Now one can recall that Dr Peter Phillips had said

“We will create 100,000 jobs in the next term in office”

One term is not 10 years but 5 years. The 40,000 jobs was out of the 100,000 he had said, but in the manifesto these jobs would be generated over 10 years and not 5 !

Second point is.

There are an average of 2 hotel workers per hotel room in Jamaica, so based on the number of rooms to be created, the number of jobs would be  2 x 14,000 or 28,000 and NOT 40,000 as claimed by the PNP. That is a difference of 12,000 jobs or 30% less than the figure claimed by the PNP.

Now what about the PNP track record on job creation.

in 1989 the labour force in Jamaica 1,115,516 at the end of 2014 this was 1,300,516 or an increase of just about  185,000 jobs in  26 years of which the PNP was in power for 22 of those years. Let’s assume that no jobs were created between 2007 & 2011 and also that no jobs were lost .

Over the 26 year the net rate of job created has been 7110 jobs per annum, yet the  PNP which is not know to create sustainable jobs, wants us to believe that they can triple that number, given the fact that 100,000 in 5 years is 20,000 jobs per year.

See graph below

jamaica labour force

Pay careful attention to the numbers on the right hand side and not just focus on the columns as you could be fooled.

The PNP’s Manifesto in relation to manufacturing is the worst I have ever seen in any Manifesto and shows a lack of thought and depth in their document.

The plans for Manufacturing in terms of job creation is all of 23 words, yes 23 words ! It reads( pg 34)

” This sector has traditionally been a significant employer of labour and is expected to continue to do so as it is being revitalized”

 

On page 33 of the Manifesto the PNP speaks about the manufacturing sector and possible linkages to Tourism and Mining but is so vague it makes no sense. It then goes unto read that electricity rates have moved from US$0.40  to US$0.24 / kwh, but the rate is actually US$0.25 per Kwh thanks to world oil prices and nothing to do with what the PNP has done for the energy sector.

One therefore cannot rely on these oil prices beyond this year because nothing fundamental has been done in the sector to actually reduce electricity cost. Manufacturers  therefore cannot plan based on this as they will be hot by rising electricity cost as soon as oil price rebounds.

I did not bother to waste my time further having recognized the the 21 point plan was really a con and offers nothing new to the country.

Its sad that after 22 years out of 26 the PNP cannot formulate a credible plan for economic growth for this country, yet the expect to be returned to office.

Missing from the PNP plan is the plan to enter yet into another 4 year ETF with the IMF when this one runs out next year.

 

 

 

Andrew Holness tax plan is a brilliant move

The proposal by opposition leader Andrew Holness to provide tax relief for public sector workers and other at the lower end of the income bracket is an excellent move. The proposal calls out for workers who are earning less than $1.5m to enjoy tax free income.

There are the cynics in the society who believes that it is a bad move and has serious implications for the IMF agreement, but I wish to disagree.

 

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