CAPRI Study “almost” perfectly inline with Commonsenseja analayis

I have not yet received a copy of the most recent study done on electricity rates in Jamaica, however, based on what has been published in the media, it appears that the research done by CAPRI is almost perfectly inline with my own analysis .

On January 2, 2014 I published the following article

Jamaicans are not likely to see any price reduction in electricity rates come 2016

Jamaicans are not likely to see any price reduction in electricity rates come 2016

 

In that article I noted the following  point and I will then justapose those against that done by CAPRI.

 

Commonsenseja comments

1. Jamaicans are not likely to see any price reduction in electricity prices come 2016
2. Private Power Companies  220 MW (ONLINE some of the  time) 33%
3. This represents a reduction of US$0.10 per Kwh or a 24% reduction in power to the consumer.
4. Installed capacity of all the power plants in Jamaica currently stands around 820 MW, with steady state demand around 550 MW and an average  peak demand of just about 650MW.

 

CAPRI Study

1. The local think tank, Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), is projecting that Jamaicans will not see any significant reduction in electricity rates until 2019, instead of 2016 as projected by the Government.
2. Independent Power Providers (IPP) will supply 200MW of peak demand to local customers; the winning bidder’s proposed plants begin supplying 381MW by 2016, and JPS will supply the remaining 120MW
3.  the think tank has projected that the rates will come down by 23 per cent and not the between 30 and 40 per cent projected by Energy Minister Phillip Paulwell.
4. Average energy demand at peak will increase from 650MW to 680MW by 2019 as the population increases and the price of crude oil remains roughly the same.

 

What is missing from CAPRI study  ( at least based on the Gleaner report)

1. The effect of inflation between now and then, which was factored into my report.
2. The effect of increase fuel prices . I had indicated the possibility of the GOJ adding GCT to fuel prices and that still remains a distinct possibility.
3. The effect on world prices increase as well as the impact of devaluation on the prices of fuel .

I will await the final report before I comment further, but so far we both seem to arrive at the same conclusion albeit that CAPRI has significantly more resources available vs commonsenseja.

This is the type of analysis that I have been speaking about and have been critical of both the  Jamaica Society of Energy Engineers and well as the Jamaica Society for Engineers,  whose voices have been conspicuously absent from this public debate on electricity generation and prices here in Jamaica.

These two groups have on board some of Jamaica’s best minds, yet they continue to remain silent , while allowing those who have less technical knowledge of what is the most critical project in Jamaica to be the voices of reason.

I am once again calling on the engineering community in Jamaica to get up off its hunches and begin to bring its expertise to table, or is that asking too much.

No one is asking the umbrella group of engineers to take sides, all they need to do is bring DATA to the table and allow the public to consume that and form their own opinion.

This energy project is what will make or break Jamaica and its inconceivable that the Jamaica Engineering community has refused to so far participate in the process ( at least in a public way)