Consumer and Business confidence soaring, really ?

Imagine the shock look at my face, when I heard today that there is a surge in business and consumer confidence in Jamaica, based on a Survey done by Market Research company lead by Don Anderson. This he reported is the highest incidence since record keeping in 2001, with over 65% of all business surveyed saying this is a good time to invest.

What could have been driving these numbers, here is what findings showed

  1. Government passing IMF test
  2. The Macro economic situation is improving
  3. Things seem to be heading in the right direction

I almost fell off my chair when I heard this news.

I am not going to question the integrity of the poll as Don is a good pollster, but I am truly shocked by these results coming at this point in time.

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5 Responses

  1. Your problem Jay is you hate good news. You strive on negativity and hopelessness. I am surprised you even have the energy to get out of bed each morning or is it that some individuals are at their best when wallowing in hatred, negativity and despair? Continue on this path and you, sir, will self destruct at some point.

    I have often times point out how you avoid like a plague, bringing good news about our country to your blog. You must be one unhappy individual. Continue to be shocked, as Comrades ride this wave into 16.5 more years in office. I’m sure you are on some form of secret mission trying to find some evidence why the conclusions coming out of this poll was bogus and meant to shore up the PNP Administration. You are indeed a pathetic individual!.

    • You are the pathetic one. The reason why Jamaica is in its current predicament is because we are too emotive. We shun logic and hard cold analysis.

      I remember the same surge in confidence in 2012 and the reason given then was that JEEP would provide employment for thousands of persons and that would in turn stimulate demand. But surely as night follows day things didn’t turn out as expected and confidence plummeted.

      Now here we are at the beginning of 2015 and we are doing the same thing over again.

      Passing IMF tests alone will not grow the economy. If the factors affecting growth and development are addressed we will perpetually be in the arms of the IMF.

    • I just don’t listen to the news and report on what I have heard, instead I choose to analyze what is being reported to see if it actually makes sense.

      The results of this latest business and consumer survey defies all logic if you really give it some serious thought, which I am sure you would arrive at the point if you were to remove the coloured lens, ( An impossible task for comrades)

      To arrive at a particular position it can be done in two ways (1) Belief or emotion (2) analysis of the data .

      If one believes something that defies logic, we cannot change that as that belief is not grounded in any sort of analysis, so nothing you say no amount data can change the belief of that person.

      On the other hand, if one choose to arrive at a position by analyzing the facts and looking at trends and what I call indicators, then you would be in a position to arrive at a point grounded in data analysis and can be defended.

      If business and consumer confidence is up based solely on passing 6 consecutive IMF test and minuscule growth, then this country will continue to be disappointed as there is nothing happening that suggest we have and are executing any plan to move the country along.

      As a people we hope for everything vs strategic planning and execution of those plans. We too often work on the basis of ” feeling good” vs anything that is grounded in true data analysis.

      If there was a growth agenda, which said by 2015 we should be here and the data shows that for the most part we are at that point, then I would be happy because at least we have a definitive plan, we have milestones and we are tracking progress against the plan and milestones.

      Where is that plan and on what basis are those who “feel say” things will get better is based.

      Lack of critical analysis is killing this country and the PNP will continue to win by virtue of our inability to think ,analyze and then act on the results of those analysis.

      We vote not on issues for example, but on “likeness” or blind allegiance to a particular political party.

      Another 16.5 yrs of the PNP and it will be just the very rich and the very poor who will be in Jamaica as the middle class and the young would have long fled this country.

    • Anonymous, you are not a fool or that is what I think. This administration has pulled many tricks. Portia bragged about the JEP programme and it failed, just go and google it. Paulwell bragged about the rare earth minerals project, but that sector is no longer doing great internationally. You can read the WSJ, Vox and other media sources for information. This improvement in confidence is only temporary, these variables fluctuate depending on the environment.

  2. “Really” My exact sentiment when I heard the news but time will tell.

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