There is a general feeling in Jamaica, that there are far too many people making excuses for the embarrassingly poor performance of successive Governments over the last 50 years. There is also the feeling, (which at times is support by comments by the Prime Minister herself), that any criticism of the PNP , which is said to be the party of the poor, is in itself an attack on the poor.
The PNP and the Prime Minister, would want us to believe, that our demand for the Prime Minister to provide more information to the people on a regular basis and our criticism of her failure to do so just far, is out of malice and the fact that she is from the wrong colour, class and gender.
This notion must be dismissed forthwith and the failure of the media giants, influential public figures and commentators to dismiss this rather puerile notion by Portia Simpson, Peter Bunting etal, speaks volumes.
Jamaicans in 2014 must demand strong and decisive leadership, we must push for an inclusive process, we must demand an end to mediocrity in every aspect of Government and we must be very impatient when it comes onto getting results.
No longer must we accept that Project A or B, will bring long term benefits to the country, instead we must demand to the see the data, which based on best available data, detailed analysis and forecasting based on verifiable data as well as reasonable assumptions, which shows that should all things being equal , we will see the stated figures being projected by the Minister or public official.
A quick example is the “feeling” or should I say the notion, that this new 434MW duel fuel combined cycle plant, will drop electricity rates to mid US$0.20 per Kwh or 50% reduction in electricity rates. Jamaicans have bought it simply because the Minister suggest that is what will happen, but where is the data to support this.
Installed capacity of all the power plants in Jamaica currently stands around 820 MW, with steady state demand around 550 MW and an average peak demand of just about 650MW.
Jamaica Energy Partners and well as Jamaica Private Power Company and Wigton provides approx 250MW of this about or roughly 30% of installed capacity and ~ 38% of peak demand. This figure is more than likely around 30% of peak demand if we assumed the plants run at less than stated installed capacity.
Further should we assume the more efficient plants are running at all time, it would stand to reason that the Private Power Plants would for the most part supply ~ 30% of peak demand .
The new Power Plant being proposed would mean an additional installed capacity of 434 MW and a running load of approx 400MW, which is roughly equivalent to what JPS currently supplies with its aging plants.
So by simple maths we could have something like this.
Private Power Companies 220 MW (ONLINE some of the time) 33%
New Power Provider 400MW (Online all the time) – 66%
JPS plants 30MW ( Peaking power) – 1%
Current cost of power is approx US$0.42 /kwh
Assumptions
PPC provides power at lower cost that JPS lets say @ approx US$0.25khw and sell to JPS @ US$0.32/Kwh
JPS provides power at higher cost the IPP let’s say at $0.52/Kwh
Average cost to the consumer is US$0.42 /Kwh
Now let’s make some further bold assumptions.
Let’s assume this new power plant produces at their stated US$0.15 per Kwh and sells to JPS at US$0.20 per kwh.
The table would now look like this
IPP 33% of demand at US$0.32/kwh
New Power Plant 66% of demand at US$0.20 per Kwh
JPS existing plant 1% of demand at US$0.52 per Kwh
Weight average cost is to JPS is therefore ~ US$0.25 per Kwh
When JPS adds its provisions for Transmission and Distribution losses, theft, mark up etc, JPS will probably sell power to consumers at approx $0.32 per Kwh.
This represents a reduction of US$0.10 per Kwh or a 24% reduction in power to the consumer. Given the rate of devaluation which averages about 4% per annum (forget 2013) and possible increased fuel tax of 16.5%, the total accumulated change by 2016( in terms of % increase), when the plant comes on stream would be about 24.66% thus wiping out all projected savings.
That folks is how commonsenseja calls hyping an situation, providing hope without the input of data to justify that optimism.
As a nation, we must seek to chart a different course by refusing to accept ” word of the mouth” pronouncement, let’s ask for data, let’s have all the assumptions made put it out there and let us be the judge.
For the Engineering community in Jamaica and the Diaspora, please become more involved in the process, we need to hear your “independent” voices, we need to feel your input.
We have very competent power and generation engineers in Jamaica, so why have you all been silent.
If my numbers are correct, JPS will become an electrical distributor as core business, with very little generation and therefore it may be time to relook the JPS all island license in order to bring about greater benefits to the country.
These are what I term the shop stoppers or fundamental changes that are required if we are to avoid continuing down the slippery slope
Warren's Blog 
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